FOMC Preview: Decoding the Macro “God Chart”
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Into FOMC, the only macro that matters here is the Fed’s inflation curve and how it feeds into tech margins. I show how that sets up the next leg, up or down.
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Welcome to the comprehensive breakdown of our macro-thematic deep dive. As we navigate the complex waters ahead of FOMC, the focus today is dual-pronged: a meticulous examination of the macro-economic landscape ranging from the Federal Reserve’s “God chart” on inflation to the disinflationary effects on the Tech sector.
What does this mean for your portfolio? We are currently observing a
disinflationary trend an environment where the rate of inflation growth is slowing down, creating a “Goldilocks” scenario that is historically high-octane for technology stocks. However, the path isn’t a straight line. We are closely monitoring the NASDAQ (US 100) for specific dip-buying opportunities between the 24,473 and 24,278 levels. This move is predicated on the Treasury’s capital extraction and the upcoming Quarterly Refunding Announcement on February 2nd and 4th, which could create a “refinancing air pocket.”
Our analysis also touches on the “Shadow War” in the FX markets, specifically the aggressive devaluation of the Japanese Yen as a competitive tool against China, and the unusual correlation where both stocks and bonds dive together, funneling liquidity directly into Gold. In the crypto space, Bitcoin remains our primary focus for liquidity analysis, as it continues to act as a high-fidelity sensor for the National Financial Condition Index.
Key Takeaways:
Inflation Breakevens: The Fed is watching the 2.3% level; with no upside break, the rate-cutting cycle remains on track.
NASDAQ Strategy: Wait for the “nice dive” to the 24,278–24,473 zone to scale into tech-heavy positions.
