Inflection Week Ahead

Treasury QRA, FOMC Cycle & NFP, Timing Your Bets

🔥 Executive Summary

Next week marks three market‐moving events:

1. Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA) – Liquidity inflection

2. FOMC Meeting – Kicks off a new six‐week Fed cycle

3. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) & Q2 GDP Growth vs. recession signal

These events will steer money flows in stocks, crypto, gold and currencies. Breath is being held and for good reason. This letter shows you:

• Why QRA can spark multi-week trends

• How the Fed’s cycle framework sizes your trades

• What NFP and GDP could mean for risk assets

• Where to adjust stops and profit-take levels

Read on for a clear, step-by-step game plan.

💧 Treasury QRA: The Liquidity Switch

The QRA is the Treasury’s quarterly plan for borrowing and cash management. More bills = more short-term liquidity injected. More bonds = capital drained from markets.

Big Idea: QRA shifts can trigger weeks of follow through across assets just like last year’s surprise cut in bill issuance that dragged stocks and crypto down hard.

Why It Matters:

• Liquidity Up → USD weakens, equities & crypto rally

• Liquidity Down → USD strengthens, risk assets stall

What to Watch:

• Announcement Day (Wed): Bill vs. bond mix

• Follow-Through: Price action in S&P 500, Bitcoin, USD Index over 1–2 weeks

Action:

• Stay small into the print

• If QRA is bill-heavy, add to long global equities

• If QRA is bond-heavy, tighten stops on longs and consider risk-off hedges

📆 FOMC: Enter the Six-Week Cycle

The Fed meeting next week likely won’t cut rates immediately but their statement will reset expectations and start a fresh six-week trading cycle.

Cycle Rules:

1. Mark High & Low on daily charts from last meeting to this one

2. Draw Levels at 0%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 100% of that range

3. Scale In/Out: Add or trim positions as price crosses these levels (read primer here)

Pro Tip: Avoid new big trades in the seven days before FOMC. Use this week to protect profits, not chase fresh moves.

Trading Strategy Ahead of FOMC: Six-Week Cycle

Don't start new big trades the week before FOMC. The six-week cycle is between Fed meetings: find high and low prices on daily charts, draw channels, and use levels at 0%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 100% to add to buys or sells bit by bit.

Now, protect what you've made. For AUD/JPY from last cycle, sell some below 95, maybe fill a gap at 96.84. For Bitcoin buys at 104K and 99K, sell below 116K. Move stop losses closer. Dollar pairs are unclear; EURUSD might go above 118 based on QRA, yields, and stocks. This week is slow upward moves, like in S&P 500.

📊 NFP & GDP: Growth Check

Wednesday’s Q2 GDP and Friday’s NFP will deliver a growth verdict:

• GDP Shrinkage: Recession confirmed → Fed under pressure

• Strong GDP: “Data-dependent” pause continues

• NFP Miss: Unemployment rises → Fed bias turns dovish

• NFP Beat: Risk-on tilt remains intact

Plan:

• Pre-position small bias based on QRA/FOMC lean

• Use NFP catalyst to re-assess stops (e.g., widen on a beat, tighten on a miss)

• Expect volatility spikes in 30 minutes after release
  

🌐 Asset Snapshots

⚪️ Global Equities

• Risk-on vs. Risk-off swings around QRAs.

• Plan to add to core long positions if bills remain heavy.

• Trim if issuance tilts to bonds.

S&P 500 and Systematic Traders

S&P 500 up, but many auto-traders joined at 5,800-5,900. They could lose big on drops. QRA wrong way might cause fast or slow changes. Be ready both ways. Majority of these systematic traders did not jump into the rally until those higher levels, so their positions are up there and more at risk if there's a sudden turnaround. This vulnerability comes from sharp reversals that could easily occur if the QRA doesn't deliver what the market hopes for. Sometimes the effects hit right away, other times it takes about a week for them to fully show. We'll keep communicating updates, stay calm, and prepare for either outcome, taking it step by step from there.

₿Bitcoin & Crypto

• QRAs mark liquidity shifts that show up in BTC moves.

• Use six-week cycle to time buys at lows.

• Altcoins may start a 2021-style lift in August but expect choppy first.

🏅Gold Positioning

Still long Gold from 3,280, but protect by selling below 3,390. Hope for break above 3,450 for more up. No new buys until after events. Recent CPI held at 3,350, london fix models work well.

💴 Yen & Nikkei

Yen pairs rise with yields. Japanese yields up from more borrowing, less buying by their bank, good economy, moderate inflation. People want returns, not safe bonds.

This helps yen pairs and Nikkei. In cycle around 38,000, might break to all-time high like 41,212 or 42,487. Ties to risk and money flow. But if QRA pulls money, quick pain since volatile and some missed the rise. The key driver continues to be yields, with the 10-year yield moving around but Japanese ones staying strong. There are two main reasons: increased borrowing in longer terms and the Bank of Japan not purchasing much of it. Also, a strong economy and rising inflation mean less need to hide money in bonds for safety; instead, seekers look for better gains elsewhere. When yields fall, it often signals worry in the economy or consumers. Right now, this setup looks positive for the overall economy, linking to yen pairs climbing and the Nikkei showing signs of upward movement. It seems set to hit new record highs soon.

• Rising Japanese yields + QRA liquidity → yen pairs up

• Nikkei aims for 41,200–42,500 in new highs

• Trade XXX/JPY on long side, with one eye on yields

  

  Created with TradingView

🇨🇦 CAD Pairs Q&A

USD/CAD down, keep sells from 1,000 pips higher. Opened in february around 1.4385. Can go lower long-term, but wait next week. Tariffs hurt U.S. by taxing buyers, weaken dollar. Takes years for U.S. to make own goods.

AUD/CAD up 100 pips, but stuck. Should go higher. It's volatile to risk; up means global good, AUD beats safer CAD. CAD power from weak dollar, not strong CAD.

• USD/CAD – Tariffs weigh on the dollar. Watch 1.3450 next.

• AUD/CAD – A weaker CAD powers it. Long rallies if AUD/USD holds.

---

🔮 Themes & Takeaways

1. QRA is the wild card. It can set a 6–12 week trend in motion.

2. FOMC resets the clock. Use the six-week cycle to scale trades.

3. NFP/GDP define the next Fed path. Be ready for quick moves.

4. Defend now. Cut loose under key levels.

5. Attack later. Scale in when you see clear inflection after events.

---

🟩 Stay Ahead of the Curve

This week, gather intel and protect your P&L. Next week, you’ll have the data to push or pull the trigger. Time your global equity bets at the sweet spot.

🟢 [Subscribe for Live Alerts & Discord Access]

This is not financial advice. Do your own research and trade with care.

Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and not financial advice. Conduct due diligence and consult a financial advisor before investing. Past performance does not guarantee future results.