Macro Masterclass LIVE: Dollar Dynamics, Yen Patterns & Trade-Exit Tactics
Psychology, Fed Scenarios, Trade Rules & USD/Yen Outlook
🚀 Executive Summary
This letter condenses our July 16 livestream into a data-driven roadmap. You’ll learn:
How to read real fear in your body vs. mental chatter
Two Fed leadership outcomes and their market ripples
A 3P framework for managing trades when they miss or retrace
Big picture calls on the USD and the Yen with exact levels and invalidation points
We move from inner signals to global macro all in plain English, actionable now.
🧠 1. Trading Psychology: Emotional vs. Cognitive Fear
Most traders call every pang of doubt “fear.” We track 1,000+ trades and find two distinct types.
💓 Emotional Fear
Signal location: Gut, chest, solar plexus
How it feels: Sinking, tightness, a hollow drop
Why it matters: It’s your body’s pattern detector firing on past market shocks
Impact: Ignored, you lose 80 % of the time within 15 minutes
Action: React, tighten stops, reduce size, or exit. The market heat is real.
🤔 Cognitive Fear
Signal location: Forehead tension, jaw clench
How it feels: Lingering worry, “what-if” scenarios
Why it lies: It’s storytelling, not real-time data
Impact: Stops you from entering high-edge trades
Action: Pause and breathe. Recheck facts. Don’t trade on it alone.
🏦 2. Fed Leadership: Scenarios & Precedents
A Powell pivot can matter more than a rate speech. Here are two scenarios:
2A. 📉 Powell Resigns, Jefferson Vice President Steps In
Immediate effect: 2-year yields drop. Rate-cut bets soar.
USD: Weakens vs. JPY & CHF.
Equities: May gap down 1–2 %, then rebound.
Trade idea: Long Treasuries on rumor. Short USD vs CHF and JPY.
Invalidate: If 10-year yield tops 4.8 %, flip to flat.
2B. 🕰️ Echoes of 1948 Marriner Eccles
Context: Eccles quit under Truman over low-rate battles.
Outcome: Markets stayed calm; move was priced in.
Parallel today: Post-COVID debt vs. inflation gridlock.
Positioning: Buy front-end Treasuries on chatter. Trim USD longs.
🛠️ 3. Trade Management: The 3P Framework
Even great ideas fail without rules. Use our 3P to stay disciplined:
Profit Zones:
Define ranges, not single price points (e.g., S&P 500: 6,318–6,322).
Always include time stops (e.g., 48 hours).
Path Assessment:
If the market retraces to your entry, revalidate your thesis.
If your thesis is still valid, reload 50%.
If not, exit the position.
Pre-Planned Decisions:
Script your response before trading begins.
Example: “If price revisits entry and GDP holds, add.”
Golden Rule: Good ideas run fast. Bad ideas linger near your stop.
💵 4. USD Macro Outlook: Real Yields & Equity Flows
The dollar’s pulse lies in real yields and equity dynamics:
Real yield (10 yr − inflation): ~2 % now; may fall to 1.4–1.8 % if inflation erodes returns
Equity grind: S&P likely churning up toward 6700 (2017 analog)
Catalyst: US Admin wants 10-yr yields at 3.5–3.8 %. A spike above 4.6 % is bulish for USD
Real yield > 2.6 % will seriously scatter Dollar bears.
Why it works:
Equities and real yields usually move inversely for USD strength
Here, yields cap while stocks drift up → dollar weakness
💴 5. Yen Macro Outlook: Carry & 1998 Parallels
The yen story is a carry trade replay:
Carry gap: Fed-BOJ rate spread wide, echo of 1998
Historical echo: 1998 blow-off top in carry trades ended in a sharp yen rally
Current drivers: Japan paused hikes. U.S. real yields high.
Upcoming catalyst: July 22 CPI → profit-taking in yen shorts
Watch: MOF intervention risk (as seen in 2024).
Note: These moves rarely run straight. Expect volatility spikes.
❓ 6. Selected Q&A: Live Insights
From our chat, here are three high-value takeaways:
🔄 Post-CPI London Fix
Fix windows often spark 70–150 pip moves in FX.
Gold break north on cards, and possible GBPUSD intraday play.
Tip: Buy gold above the fix if momentum is positive.
Created with TradingView
🏦 CHF as Safe Haven
Post-2022, CHF trades like a store of value, not just a funding currency.
It rallies on Euro risk-off.
⚡ Tesla Six-Week Cycle
FOMC high/low fibs (May 7–June 18) signal buys at 295–315.
Target 350 into earnings.
Invalidation: Close below 273 daily.
🏁 Conclusion & Next Steps
Read real fear. Trust gut vs. mind.
Plan for Fed drama. Leadership matters.
Use 3P. Pre-script your trades.
Position for USD weakness. Watch real yields top out sub 2.6% first.
Trade yen carry carefully. Learn from 1998.
These are institutional-grade insights distilled for you.
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Trade Strong,
Miad