Market Catalysts Unwinding: Trade Deals, Crypto Breakouts, and AI-Driven Equity surge
From Nikkei Rallies to Ethereum Overshoots – Actionable Setups to Ride the Momentum Without Getting Burned
📝 Executive Summary
This report analyzes evolving market dynamics influenced by recent trade agreements with the EU, Japan, and a 90-day tariff extension with China, fostering optimism across equities and cryptocurrencies. Correlations between the Nikkei and NASDAQ highlight potential rallies, while Ethereum nears a monthly breakout amid regulatory advancements. Bitcoin exhibits liquidity patterns suggesting sideways consolidation beneficial for altcoins. NASDAQ faces seasonal correction risks in August-September, exacerbated by upcoming FOMC decisions and big tech earnings. Institutional flows, supported by the Clarity Act and Genius Act, are poised to drive altcoins and equities, though overextended positioning and volatility warrant vigilance. Overall bias remains bullish on select assets, with emphasis on inside candle failures, and cross-market correlations for strategic allocations. Special attention towards INCREASING RISK of a potential 10% correction in NASDAQ and correlated Risk-On Assets.
🤝 Trade Deals Igniting Global Optimism
The weekend dropped some serious catalysts: 90-day tariff pause with China, pacts with EU and Japan. Bitcoin felt it first, popping on optimism, while Nikkei's 6% surge post-Japan deal hinted towards correlated risk-on Rally in US indices. It's like markets finally got permission to party, but remember, noise fades – focus on the flow.
Setup in Play: Trade announcements spark Short Term risk-on; NASDAQ longs we've held since monthly opens have rendered 855 point return, these long positions were closed last week for incredible returns.
Levels to Watch: NQ futures target target 23,660 in the short term. NAS100 equivalent level is 23,502. Expect resistance to kick in at these levels
Practical Tip: Pair NASDAQ (NAS100 or NDX) with MSFT for entries. MSFT and NAS100 are extremely correlated. If MSFT breaks down on earnings report, that will have a negative impact on NAS100 too.
Risk Considerations: MSFT reports earnings on Wednesday, 30th July, 2025 after market close. MSFT is extremely overstretched, watch for earnings impact on MSFT. If MSFT corrects by 5% post-earnings release, it could drag NAS100 down by 5% as well due to heavy correlation, flipping the entire global risk-on sentiment.
Key Takeaway: Catalysts are starters, not finish lines – use them to position, not chase
Figure 1: NAS100 vs MSFT, Battle of the heavyweights. MSFT reports Earnings on July 30th, 2025.
🚀 Bitcoin's Liquidity Plays and High-Timeframe Bullishness
Bitcoin's pulling those classic liquidity hunts, with a double inside 5-day failure eyeing upside. We saw it grab lows at 115-116K, trapping shorts before bouncing. Reminds me of past cycles where sideways action rotates cash into alts – as long as NASDAQ holds, BTC stays bid. No cliff drops here; dips are setups.
Setup in Play: Daily SFP* on Friday triggers longs; targeting New All Time High of $123,000 in the short term. Previous week’s sideways price action favored altcoins outperformance.
Levels to Watch: Potential Long at 116.5-117K, stop 115.5K, target 123K all-time highs.
Practical Tip: Bid dips aligning with NASDAQ supports – use 4-hour thrust lows for tight entries. BTCUSD and NAS100 have a strong correlation, If NAS100 suffers a 5% correction, that would imply BTCUSD will suffer 7-10% correction due to it’s alpha-beta relationship with NAS100 index.
Risk Considerations: 110k-112K is strong support zone. HTF invalidation for long bias is under 98K swing low. If Higher Time frame bullish trend is to remain intact, price cannot breach 98k swing low.
Key Takeaway: Liquidity traps are gifts – hunt them patiently, aiming for 130-150K by year-end if structure keeps holding.
*SFP is acronym for swing failure pattern, a key maneuver in liquidity traps
Figure 2: BTCUSD Inside 5-day candle failure to target New All Time Highs
🌌 Ethereum's Massive Breakout Horizon
Ethereum's monthly candle is a beast – up ~60%, tagging resistance for the third time with weakening sellers at 4100$ resistance zone, which is going to be tested for the “THRID TIME” in the coming week(s). That higher low at ~1,382 screams uptrend (New Invalidation level for Long Bias). The current setup on higher time frames is echoing Bitcoin's 2020 triangle consolidation breakout (See figure below). No pullback? Utilize the Monthly Open Strategy using opens indicator. We're eyeing a flip to 10K once the 3.5-year consolidation cracks by reclaiming $4100 S/R level, driven by regulatory green lights.
Setup in Play: Monthly uptrend with higher lows; log-scale triangle rejection sets up for massive unwind, like BTC's post-2020 run.
Levels to Watch: Break ~4,100 liquidity pool targets in the near term; support at yearly open ~3,300-3,582.
Practical Tip: If no dip, use weekly opens to trail stops – spot long on August/September pullbacks.
Risk Considerations: Current Monthly candle and Quarterly candle is EXTREMELY STRETCHED. Once market takes out 4100$ swing highs, there can be a sharp pullback down to Yearly open ~3,300 for support retest. Given that ETHUSD and BTCUSD have strong ties to NASDAQ in terms of Risk-On appetite, this means 10% BTCUSD correction will have a spillover effect in ETHUSD as well.
Key Takeaway: Consolidations birth monsters – Ethereum's setup could mirror BTC's 300% surge from post 2020 consolidation breakout, but wait for S/R flips to commit.
Figure 2: BTCUSD 2020 Breakout Parallel to ETHUSD 2025 Breakout
⚠️ NASDAQ's Stretched Rally and Historical Echoes
NASDAQ's vertical rally of ~43% from April 9th, 2025 bottom is hitting parallels: post-COVID bottom rally, NAS100 suffered 15% drop after 160 days long rally, post 2018 crash recovery, NAS100 suffered 10% correction after 126 days long rally. In July 2025, NAS100 is At ~105 days mark now from its April 9th, 2025 bottom rally ignition, seasonality bites in August-September. RSI at 70 screams controlled uptrend, not heavily overbought yet. Weekend news headlines such as 90-day tariff pause extension, upcoming MSFT earnings, along with FOMC meeting on July 30th, 2025; could potentially cause a “SELL THE NEWS” event to transpire, potentially kickstarting a corrective pullback in NAS100.
Setup in Play: Low VIX fuels systematic buys; historical vertical rallies have snapped after 120-160 day period post bottoming, flashbacks from 2018-2019 bottom and 2020 covid-19 bottom.
Levels to Watch: Support 22,956 weekly low is the new invalidation level for long bias; eyeing 1.272 fib extension ~23,842 for upside targets.
Practical Tip: Alert RSI >75 for hard exits; reposition longs once 5-8% dips occur, pullbacks to retest prior supports.
Risk Considerations: FOMC/tech earnings could potentially trigger 10%+ fall; If NAS100 goes below 22,956, that would kickstart the correction.
Key Takeaway: History rhymes – stretched rallies correct healthily; view them as reloads, not roadblocks
Figure 3: NASDAQ V shaped reversals, comparing 2018 rally vs 2020 rally
🌠 Altcoin Breakouts: Sui, Aave, Link, XLM, and XRP Setups
Alts are catching fire with regulatory clarity – think Genius Act unlocking flows. Sui's monthly bullish start eyes all-time highs; Aave's quarterly failure targets $400; Link's higher lows scream $31 target on Inside 3-Month candle failure; XLM's U.S. ties mimic XRP's run; XRP's inside weekly teases upside. Grouped, they're outpacing BTC in rotations.
Setup in Play: Sui HTF shift post-retest; Aave inside quarterly failure; Link monthly higher lows; XLM consolidation breakout like XRP; XRP inside weekly/2-week.
Levels to Watch: Sui long 3.87, stop 3.60, target $5.4;
AAVEUSD long on SFP ~ $300, target $400 (6.25 RR);
Link spot ~$16.5-17, target $31 (72% upside);
XLM to $1, from 23 cents entry (300%+);
XRP daily SFP low for long trigger, Inside weekly Candle pattern in play.
→ Checkout Crypto Market Insights , to catch up on which altcoins are favored for longer term positioning based on World Liberty Financial’s holdings.Practical Tip: Screen altcoins linked to Trump’s World Liberty Financial firm – bid SR retests like Sui's $3.87 on pullbacks.
Risk Considerations: Sui below 3.50 breaks structure, could suffer a deeper correction if that happens; Aave under ~$210 could risk breaking structure (Key HTF Invalidation zone) ; general alts tie to BTC which means 10% correction cascades could stutter altcoin run.
Key Takeaway: Alts are the wildcards – regulatory tailwinds make them outperformers, but tether to BTC for safety.
🇺🇸 US Equities: Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, and Apple Earnings Plays
Megacaps are the engines: Meta's inside 2-week eyes catch-up to NASDAQ; Amazon lags all-time highs but earnings could gap it; Microsoft's vertical dictates index; Apple's tariff pause fuels gap fills. Earnings week is pivotal – watch reactions post-FOMC.
Setup in Play: Meta down monthly but quarterly syncs with NASDAQ; Amazon double inside monthly; Microsoft blow-off risk; Apple tariff relief on China exposure (~60% iPhones).
Levels to Watch: Meta long on earnings dip, target all-time highs (12%+); Amazon holds to hit new All Time Highs; Microsoft $520 Macro Target (Strong Resistance), support ~400; Apple above $215, targets 225$, target gaps, then all-time highs.
Practical Tip: Use March 2026 options for time – position post-earnings gaps like Apple's potential up. Any pullback provided in NAS100 going into August/September is a gift, should be utilized to position in swing longs utilizing Option Calls for end of year run up.
Risk Considerations: Microsoft reports earnings on wednesday, 30th July, 2025, this week. A 10% correction in MSFT will spill over to NASDAQ/BTC, tread with CAUTION.
→ Checkout our Deep Dive on US EQUITIES and learn on how we have been positioned to catch the uptrend going into US tech earnings season this month.
Key Takeaway: Earnings are truth serums – these heavyweights drive the narrative; time dips for leveraged upsides.
Figure 4: META Inside 2-week Candle Pattern in play going into Earnings
📈 AI Boom: Infrastructure Driving US Growth Opportunities
AI infrastructure development is portrayed as a transformative force driving market rallies, particularly in U.S. equities like NASDAQ, with parallels to historical tech booms. Strong emphasizes was laid out on current rally in NASDAQ being fueled by AI advancements, noting vertical moves in stocks like Microsoft and Nvidia due to AI integration and revenue surges in quarterly earnings report. The sector is described as being in the midst of a "bubble" building phase, similar to the 1990s internet boom, where companies like Cisco Systems provided infrastructure and saw massive gains (e.g., 7x returns before the burst). Our Research suggests that we are early in this phase, with significant upside potential, recommending research into hardware, infrastructure, energy, and nuclear companies supporting AI expansion, as building the industry requires massive energy for data centers and skilled labor, which translates to low unemployment and surging demand for resources driving the economy into overdrive mode. This re-industrialization phase in the AI sector will spur growth driven demand and potentially avert recession for next 12-18 months in the U.S.
Key Companies and Innovations Highlighted
• Nvidia: Positioned as the “poster child” of the AI rally, with revenue increasing due to AI demand. Checkout our publication on why Nvidia’s revenue will continue growing for the next year → NVDA Revenue Surge. Nvidia holds about 14% weight in NASDAQ, where a 2-3% rise in Nvidia can lift NASDAQ by 1%. Earnings are upcoming in August (August 27th), and pullbacks are seen as buying opportunities, targeting levels like previous all-time highs for longs. The focus is on Nvidia’s role in the AI infrastructure build-out.
• Microsoft: At the forefront of the AI revolution, influencing NASDAQ’s vertical rally. Our research suggests that Microsoft’s earnings (July 30th, 2025) are expected to accelerate due to AI, with the stock going “vertical” and potentially gapping up since previous earnings report. AI integration is driving consistent weekly gains, though overstretched (e.g., weekly RSI overbought), leading to concerns of 10-15% corrections similar to past snapbacks. Microsoft’s moves are chained to NASDAQ and Bitcoin correlations.
• Tesla and xAI Fusion: Tesla is highlighted for leading the AI race through a potential shareholder vote which grants TSLA the rights to INVEST into xAI (Elon Musk’s venture, valued at possibly 113 billion$). This would infuse AI into products like robotaxis and Optimus robots, enabling “agentic” AI (lifelike robots as servants). Grok (xAI’s AI model) would integrate into Tesla’s ecosystems. Once it comes to fruition, it will be transformational for society via full self-driving (FSD) cars and robotics. Shareholder vote in November could trigger 150%+ upside, shifting Tesla from a car company to a robotics/AI leader, despite recent earnings misses and political noise around Musk.
• Google (Alphabet): Gemini is described as a superior large language model (LLM), driving revenue through tools like Notebook LM (for AI-generated podcasts) and Veo3 (for fully AI-generated films, scripting, and visuals without actors). This reduces production costs dramatically (e.g., from $400 million to potentially $50 million per movie). Post-earnings, Google is expected to push to all-time highs, with AI content creation tapping new markets.
• Netflix: Benefiting from AI disruptions in Hollywood, using technologies like Google’s Veo3 for AI-generated movies, cutting production costs. Our research notes this will torpedo traditional Hollywood, with AI reflected in future earnings (next earnings report in October, 2025). Pullbacks are temporary, with longs recommended into March 2026 expirations for 10%+ stock upside, amplifying to 50-60% return via options.
Infrastructure and Supporting Developments
• Energy Needs: AI expansion requires massive energy for training models and data centers. Companies like GE Vernova (providing turbines/energy, up 156% in three months) and CEG (nuclear capabilities) are key enablers. Strong emphases is laid out towards researching nuclear firms partnering with big tech for AI infrastructure, as this underpins the sector’s growth narrative.
• Broader Trends: Transition from current LLMs (e.g., ChatGPT, Grok, Gemini—seen as 2-3 years old) to “agentic” robots by 2026. AI is decentralizing finance (via Ethereum protocols like Aave) but mainly drives equities. The sector’s growth could create jobs, countering unemployment fears, and mirror the roaring ‘20s or 1990s tech boom in returns (e.g., Super Micro Computer up 100%, akin to Cisco’s 6x gains).
🏁 There you have it – a roadmap from the livestream, packed with setups to chew on. What's your play on Ethereum's breakout or that AI energy angle? Share your trades, questions, or war stories below – let's sharpen each other. Safe trading, crew.
This isn't financial advice – just market musings from the charts. Always do your own research.