Market Momentum Analysis: Crypto Breakouts and Equity Opportunities in July 2025
Executive Summary
This analysis examines key trade setups across cryptocurrency and equity markets for July 2025, drawing on observed patterns such as monthly and quarterly candle expansions, support/resistance (S/R) levels, and inter-asset correlations. Bitcoin's recent 11% rally from early July, driven by a rainbow pattern (defined as stacked opens across weekly, monthly, and quarterly timeframes near S/R levels), signals potential consolidation this week, facilitating capital rotation into altcoins and equities. Ethereum positions for macro upside within a multi-year triangle formation under Elliott Wave principles, while select altcoins offer high-reward consolidations. Equities, particularly Nasdaq and US30, exhibit strong correlations with Bitcoin, targeting Fibonacci extensions amid upcoming earnings catalysts. Global setups in Nikkei, GBP/USD, and others provide complementary opportunities. All setups emphasize risk-reward ratios, with recommendations grounded in higher-timeframe structures. This report prioritizes actionable levels and invalidation points for institutional consideration.
Bitcoin Analysis
Bitcoin's breakout in early July 2025, yielding an 11% rally, exemplifies the efficacy of pre-expansion pattern recognition. Historical instances of similar setups have consistently delivered 10-12% monthly returns, underscoring the value of monthly and quarterly frameworks over intraday volatility.
Trade Setup
Entry Criteria: Long positions initiated above stacked opens near $107,000, contingent on holding above the $105,000 SR level, AKA “The Rainbow Pattern”. (Details on Rainbow Pattern discussed in the publication - Riding the 2025 Market Melt-Up: Strategies to Surf Bitcoin, Equities, and Beyond)
Levels to Monitor: Current price at approximately $120,000; anticipate sideways consolidation this week, with no further expansion until the two-week candle closes. Retest of $112,000 expected to act as new support in future pullbacks, potentially not until September.
Strategic Considerations: Set alerts at $112,000 for potential retest long entries, aligning with the three-week candle's massive breakout formation.
Risk Management: Invalidation below $109,000, going below this level shifts bias bearish. Very unlikely for market to turn bearish, further expansion expected once the current 2-week candle closes.
The setup's strength lies in the quarterly candle's expansion, historically indicating sustained upside following higher support bases.
Figure 1 : Key S/R levels to watch in BTCUSD for future support retests
Ethereum Analysis
Ethereum's rally aligns with broader crypto momentum, approaching the $3,200 resistance zone—an untested higher-timeframe area likely to induce congestion. From a macro perspective, the asset is forming a multi-year triangle pattern under Elliott Wave theory, with the current structure representing “wave four” consolidation since 2021. This positions for a potential “wave five” extension, contingent on establishing higher lows above the 2025 bottom at $1382.
Figure 2: Larger consolidation in play for ETHUSD
Trade Setup
Entry Criteria: Long positioned were initiated from the $2,500 rainbow pattern stack (stacked daily, weekly, and monthly opens).
Levels to Monitor: Target $3,200 for initial resistance; If pullbacks occur from resistance, $2,600-$2,700 levels offer lucrative spot buying opportunities. A break above $3,200 flips the resistance zone to support, with long-term projections to $10,000 if the triangle breakout materializes by year-end.
Strategic Considerations: Focus on 30-35% countertrend corrections (e.g., $2000-$2500range) for discounted entries, as impulsive rallies like the current one from the quarterly higher low typically precede counter trend corrections, before next leg higher begins.
Risk Management: Exit longs into $3,200 resistance to avoid congestion; adopt a short bias at this level targeting $2,600. Invalidation for Bullish Macro Thesis below $1,383.
This configuration highlights Ethereum's role as a primary beneficiary of Bitcoin Rise. When big money decides to rotate from Bitcoin, ETHUSD is the first “Alt-Coin” big money turns to.
Figure 3: Key S/R levels and Resistance in play for ETHUSD on immediate basis
Altcoin Opportunities
Building on Bitcoin's anticipated consolidation, capital flows are expected to rotate into altcoins, enhancing sentiment during sideways phases. The following setups prioritize consolidations with favorable R:R ratios, leveraging pro-crypto liquidity in the current four-year cycle.
XLM Setup
XLM's eight-year triangle consolidation, dating back to 2017, approaches a potential breakout amid heightened market liquidity.
Entry Criteria: Spot long positions were initiated at S/R support near 24.5 cents, during the April 2025 pullback from the 2018 peak.
Levels to Monitor: Break above 63 cents confirms the pattern; target $1.00 for a 300% return on original entries, with minimum settlement at this threshold for longer-term investments.
Strategic Considerations: Hold through the remaining 18 days of the monthly candle, as setups like this have historically required 3-12 months but deliver 300-1,000% return in bull environments.
Risk Management: Hold through the consolidation f no immediate breakout, willing to hold till breakout is initiated; exit at $1.00 to capture gains without overexposure.
Figure 4: Monthly Consolidation threatening massive breakout
Sui Setup
Sui exhibits a massive consolidation phase without lower lows or higher highs, supported by a propulsion block (stacked bullish order blocks near S/R levels).
Entry Criteria: Long at $3.4968, with stop below $2.8789.
Levels to Monitor: Target $5.3700, aligning with all-time highs; the three-week bullish order block (engulfing prior down candle wick at S/R level) signals expansion.
Strategic Considerations: Combine S/R taps with engulfings for entries, as this has yielded reliable 3:1 R:R in volatile assets.
Risk Management: Wide stop accommodates volatility; invalidation below $2.8789.
Figure 5: SUIUSD threatening breakout to New All Time Highs
XRP Setup
XRP's inside monthly candle failure, triggered by sideways action over three months, targets upside liquidity following the April 7, 2025 weekly swing failure pattern (SFP) at $1.89708.
Entry Criteria: Spot long could have been initiated from $1.90 weekly SFP.
Levels to Monitor: Target $3.0712-$3.40 highs for 61% returns; exit post-liquidity capture.
Strategic Considerations: Patience through consolidation phases, as higher-timeframe failures like this provide structured 60%+ moves.
Risk Management: Lock in profits at 3.40$, potentially no extension beyond $3.40; rejection could retest $1.90, emphasizing positioning in XRP as a tactical vehicle.
Figure 6: Inside monthly candle failure setup in XRPUSD
AAVE Setup
AAVE's inside quarterly candle failure supports gradual upside, with indications of expansion to new highs.
Entry Criteria: Hold above $277; buy pullbacks to $305 near-term support.
Levels to Monitor: Target $400, trading currently at $312.
Strategic Considerations: Allow time for development, as quarterly patterns have historically taken 1-2 months but align with broader rallies.
Risk Management: Breach of $277 invalidates long setup; size positions conservatively given timed nature.
Avoidance Recommendations
CRV: Lacks recognizable patterns; heavy dumps and absence of use cases suggest Ponzi dynamics—avoid longs, with potential upside limited to prior highs amid bull run.
Argo: Mirrors Ondo with pump-dump history; downward trend favors shorts on pumps rather than longs.
The altcoin setups mentioned above capitalize on Bitcoin's sideways phase, with selective focus on high-probability consolidations.
Speculative Assets and Meme Coins
Speculative assets, including meme coins, offer gambling-like opportunities during Bitcoin stagnation but warrant caution—allocate only from prior profits, treating as non-core positions.
Hype Setup
Hype defends weekly lows in sync with Bitcoin, with every timeframe low protected indicating algorithmic pumping.
Entry Criteria: Hold until previous week’s low is breached.
Levels to Monitor: Potential vertical extension to $100; look for FOMO peaks (e.g., social media greed shifts) which usually signal near term tops.
Strategic Considerations: Ride until defense fails, as synced structures have extended 100%+ in single weekly candles.
Risk Management: Trail stop losses aggressively below previous weekly candle’s low; If Bitcoin top triggers dumps, then this asset class will fall along with Bitcoin.
WIF Setup
Entry Criteria: Long above 82 cents using monthly/weekly opens level as stop.
Levels to Monitor: Target $1.391; dip below 82 cents warrants exit.
Strategic Considerations: Tight risks via monthly open level at 86 cents, for 50%+ flips in speculative phases.
Risk Management: Full wipeout risk in volatility; long position is exited if monthly open level of 86 cents is breached.
MOG Setup
MOG's rainbow pattern on monthly aligns with Bitcoin, suggesting three-week expansion.
Entry Criteria: Push higher in tandem.
Levels to Monitor: Weekly lows defended; potential to $4,100 uncertain.
Strategic Considerations: Prioritize Bitcoin-synced assets for amplified returns.
Risk Management: Manage as Bitcoin tops; invalidation on breaches.
Ondo Avoidance
Inside quarterly failure present, but supply unlocks and lack of institutional flow depreciate value—minimum investment if patterning, should be comfortable with full loss on position if any risk is deployed.
These positions underscore the speculative edge in sideways Bitcoin but demand strict risk controls.
Solana Analysis
Solana remains challenging due to the monthly low breach, invalidating bullish microstructure until reclaimed.
Entry Criteria: Wait for $187.73 weekly high flip.
Levels to Monitor: Set Alerts at $187.73 for structure shift.
Strategic Considerations: Divert energy elsewhere until confirmation, as mature markets favor Bitcoin over alt pumps.
Risk Management: Prolonged downside below; no engagement pre-shift.
Market dynamics indicate diminished altcoin pumps post-2017, with institutional flows concentrating on Bitcoin ETFs.
Equity Indices and Correlations
Bitcoin's lead, reaching the 1.272 Fibonacci extension from its April 2025 range, correlates 100% with Nasdaq, projecting similar extensions. This sync has held in historical instances, such as May 2025, November 2024 and October 2023 rallies.
Nasdaq Long Setup
Entry Criteria: Long from 22,383 on hourly SFP below monthly open, aligned with Bitcoin's rainbow breakout.
Levels to Monitor: Target 23,855 (1.272 fib); raise from initial target of 23,000 on correlation cues.
Strategic Considerations: Capture monthly expansions (e.g., 1,000-point potential) via Bitcoin correlation gauges.
Risk Management: Stop loss order below Below 22,383; upcoming earnings season provides necessary cushion to long positions, as mega cap Tech companies are poised to beat their respective earnings on low guidance benchmarks.
Figure 7: Extending long’s target on NAS100 from 23000 to 23855
US30 Long Setup
Entry Criteria: Inside weekly pattern in play; limit long at 44,150, stop below 43,984 (5:1 R:R).
Levels to Monitor: Monthly open support at 43,984; draw on liquidity towards 45,077 new All-Time Highs.
Strategic Considerations: Inside two-month failure from May 2025 recovery targets highs, additional confluence to ride long positions.
Risk Management: If monthly open Support breaks down, it could trigger prolonged consolidation; chances of that happening low, however, going below 43,800 would risk deeper correction.
Correlations position equities for July upside, with Bitcoin as the forward indicator.
Figure 8: Inside Weekly Candle Failure play on US30 targeting new All Time Highs
Earnings Catalysts and Global Setups
Earnings season commences with banks like JPM on July 15, 2025, expected to beat lowered guidance absent tariff impacts (effective August 1). This liquidity boost supports indices.
JPM Long Setup
Entry Criteria: Inside daily Candle pattern; long on gap down below at 282.5 S/R.
Levels to Monitor: Target all-time highs; could go sideways above S/R until final expansion.
Strategic Considerations: Historical earnings (e.g., 5.5% rally October 2024 post-inside weekly) align with S&P sync. JPM being heavily correlated with S&P500 index, warrants expansion higher to catch up with S&P500 to new All Time Highs.
Risk Management: Failure to rally higher risks further sideways price action; chances of that happening less likely.
Figure 9: Inside daily candle pattern ahead of Earnings report on July 15th, 2025
Nikkei Long Setup
Entry Criteria: Inside quarterly failure; buy dips to 39,168, stop at 38,960, target new All Time High (7.66:1 R:R).
Levels to Monitor: First Target at 40,857, Second Target at All Time High of 42,498; USD/JPY upside aids upside via yen devaluation, aiding risk-on appetite.
Strategic Considerations: Potential low of the Quarter forming at 39,168. Inside quarterly candle failure pattern warrants expansion to New All Time Highs.
Risk Management: Stop below 38,960; below 38,960 can lead to prolonged sideways price action before expansion higher
Figure 10: Nikkei225’s Inside quarterly candle failure pattern long entry
GBP/USD Long Setup
Entry Criteria: S/R retest bounce; limit long at 1.34485 (untested weekly/daily SR).
Levels to Monitor: Target nearest resistance at 1.35325 (1.3:1 R:R).
Strategic Considerations: 80-90% strike rate on untested retests; bullish order block on daily provides support for S/R retest bounce play.
Risk Management: Below S/R stop at 1.33866; 1R loss on stops.
Figure 11: GBPUSD long setup for untested S/R bounce play
Outlook and Recommendations
July 2025 presents aligned opportunities across assets, with Bitcoin consolidation driving altcoins and equity flows, amplified by potential earnings beats looking to be triggered at the onset of earnings season this week. Prioritize higher-timeframe patterns for R:R >3:1, monitoring invalidations closely. Cross Market Correlation between Bitcoin and Nasdaq suggests further Risk-on Appetite in the month of July, 2025.
Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and not financial advice. Conduct due diligence and consult a financial advisor before investing. Past performance does not guarantee future results.