The “Risk Map” for Bitcoin, Gold, and FX

Executive Summary

It is Wednesday, December 3, 2025, at 6 AM UK time. With only three weeks remaining in the year and the FOMC meeting looming on December 10th, we are at a critical juncture. The past year has offered immense opportunities for profit-taking, but also significant learning curves where markets diverged from expectations. Today’s deep dive is about navigating these divergences without emotional collapse.

This post dissects two distinct pillars of successful trading: Internal Process and External Market Analysis.

We transition to a high-level technical breakdown of the market pre-FOMC. We detail the proprietary 6-Week Fed Cycle, a methodology that defines high-probability breakout zones (with a <10% failure rate once established) and allows for a “Three Soldiers” staggered entry strategy. We then overlay this with our “Risk Map,” using Credit Spreads (the “last functioning smoke alarm”), Real Yields, and the XLP/XLY ratio to determine if we are in a “Risk-On” or “Risk-Off” environment.