The Secular Shift Is Here: How to Trade the Next Phase of the Cycle
Macro Pillar&Forward Strategy
We’ve traded through booms, busts, and pivots but what we’re watching now feels different.
We are entering what may be a new secular regime:
Yields trending higher
Liquidity cycling faster
Risk assets behaving wildly
Markets don’t care about narratives. They care about flows, positioning, and timing. If you know how to read the cycle, you compound.
Here’s the playbook for Q3.
📈 1. The Secular Yield Shift: This Changes Everything
The 10-year Treasury yield is breaking out of a 40-year downtrend.
That’s a macrostructural shift.
We believe the secular bottom is in at 3.5% and yields could touch 8% this cycle, barring a recession. This means:
Borrowing gets costlier
Equities face pressure via higher refinancing
Volatility returns in waves
🟩 Key Takeaway: This isn’t the 2010s. It’s starting to feel like the 1970s. Get ready to trade ranges, reversals, and real yields.
🧯 2. Liquidity Is the Market’s Fuel
The Chicago Fed’s National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) shows loose financial conditions, despite the Fed's “tight” rhetoric.
Translation?
Liquidity is sloshing, and that liquidity flows into high-beta trades like crypto and tech.
Falling NFCI = rising Bitcoin
Loose liquidity = short-term tailwind for risk assets
🟩 Key Takeaway: Liquidity is oxygen. Ride the wave, but always have an exit plan.
₿ 3. Bitcoin: Breakout Mode
BTC has held the breakout from $99K, eyes now on $112K–$120K.
Setup:
Long: $99.5K
Target: $112K–$120K
Stop: $94K
BTC is moving with real yields, and capital fleeing bonds is flowing to crypto.
🟩 Key Takeaway: BTC is a liquidity sponge. Trade it tactically, our original entry was published on 18th June.
💴 4. AUD/JPY: Slow Burn, Big Break
This one’s been grinding, but the macro supports a breakout.
AUD strength: fueled by China stimulus
JPY weakness: mild inflation, soft BoJ
Setup:
Long: ~92.00 average
Target: 97.00
Stop: 91.50
🟩 Key Takeaway: Don’t chase it. Let it base. Patience pays on slow-grind FX breakouts.
🇩🇪 5. DAX: The 27K Setup
Six weeks of grind higher and no sign of exhaustion.
Liquidity from German stimulus supports upside
Break above 25,000 opens up Santa Rally path to 27K
Setup:
Long: 23,300
Target: 25,000 → 27,000
Stop: 23,000
🟩 Key Takeaway: Discipline over hype. DAX is rewarding precision, not speed.
💵 6. Dollar Dynamics: NFP + QRA = Catalyst Combo
The USD is at a crossroads. Two events will dictate direction:
NFP – July 3
Weak print (<115K, >4.3% unemployment) = dollar bearish
Strong print = short squeeze
QRA – Treasury’s Borrowing Mix
More bills = more liquidity = weaker USD
More bonds = tighter liquidity = stronger USD
🟩 Key Takeaway: The dollar is a puppet, NFP and QRA pull the strings.
🌍 7. U.S. vs. Europe: Follow the Flows
SPY/STOXX ratio has flipped. Europe is now outperforming.
STOXX strength tied to policy, rotation, FX tailwind
S&P 500’s edge fading in euro terms
🟩 Key Takeaway: Flows don’t lie—capital is rotating. Europe is taking the lead.
📊 8. High-Conviction Setups (Q3 Core List)
🧠 Apple (AAPL): Chasing the NASDAQ
Long from 203
Target: 236 → 260
Stop: 190
🟩 High-conviction equity trade into Q3 strength
🟡 Gold: Still the Commodity Darling
Buy zone: $3,200–$3,290
Stop: $3,100
Target: $3,450+
🟩 Watch for breakout as real yields normalise
🎓 Final Thought: Trade the Cycle, Not the Narrative
This is the part most traders miss.
Everyone sees charts. Everyone sees headlines.
Very few know where we are in the cycle.
This quarter:
Yields are rising
Liquidity is loose
Assets are volatile
Catalysts are near
The edge isn’t in being early. It’s in being on time and right-sized.
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Stay sharp,
Miad
Nice one, on aapl: Don't you mean long from 201? Instead of 231 :)