US Equities Outlook: July 2025 Earnings Season and Market Dynamics
Focus on NVDA, AMZN, GOOGL, AAPL, BTCUSD, COIN and MSFT
Publication Date: July 3, 2025
This report analyzes the US equities landscape during the July 2025 earnings season, offering actionable insights for hedge fund managers and tech-savvy investors. Sourced from a July 2, 2025 discussion, it covers technical analysis, market correlations, and fundamentals driving Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, and NASDAQ, alongside cryptocurrency trends led by Coinbase. The focus is on high-probability trading setups, capital allocation, and risk management.
Executive Summary
The July 2025 earnings season is poised to drive significant price action in US equities, with bullish patterns in Nvidia, Microsoft, and Apple fueling NASDAQ’s rally. Technical analysis identifies key support and resistance (S/R) levels and inefficiencies, favoring long positions during retracements. Apple offers the highest return potential (29% potential return), followed by lagging equities like Amazon and Google. Coinbase capitalizes on stablecoin adoption, while Bitcoin’s upside is limited by NASDAQ’s dominance. Investors should prioritize data-driven strategies and disciplined risk management to navigate this bullish market.
🧭 1. Market Context: July 2025 Earnings Season
1.1 Overview
The July 2025 earnings season is a critical period, with corporate earnings expected to catalyze volatility and opportunity. NASDAQ, driven by tech giants, exhibits a bullish quarterly engulfing pattern and no immediate resistance, supporting further upside.
1.2 Bullish Patterns and Trading Strategy
Bullish Signals: Microsoft and Nvidia’s quarterly bullish engulfing patterns suggest 15-21% upside in the next quarter, based on historical data.
Trading Approach: Seek long opportunities during retracements to SR levels, using the opens indicator for precision. Patience for confirmed market structure breaks is key.
🔍 2. Technical Analysis: Key Equities and NASDAQ
2.1 Nvidia: NASDAQ’s Algorithmic Anchor
Nvidia’s substantial index weighting makes it a linchpin for NASDAQ’s performance.
Support and Resistance:
Primary S/R at 153.30, a quarterly support tested post-gap down, reinforced by a bullish engulfing.
Secondary SR at 143.67, a potential long setup if 153.30 fails, tied to a market inefficiency.
Price Action:
A quarterly gap down was filled, followed by a post-ADB news squeeze above the monthly open, forming a daily bullish autoblock.
Expected to hold 153.30; a break targets 143.67 for a high-probability long.
Index Impact: Nvidia’s SR defense drove NASDAQ’s bottom, confirming its algorithmic leadership for July 2025.
Figure 1: NVDA Retesting Prior All Time High S/R at 153.30 for Support
2.2 Apple: Catch-Up Potential
Apple’s consolidation, marked by a rare triple inside 3-week candle, signals an imminent breakout.
Support and Resistance:
Current SR, on its fourth test, is weakening, poised for a breakout.
Upside target at 284 (1.272 Fibonacci extension, 33% return), with multiple inefficiencies to fill.
Price Action:
An ascending triangle pattern and higher lows confirm bullish structure.
Earnings on July 23, 2025, are expected to trigger a strong rally to all-time highs with minimal pullbacks.
NASDAQ Correlation: Apple’s 30-year NASDAQ tracking ensures catch-up gains, with 23-33% return potential. Past breakouts post-consolidation yielded up to 80%.
Figure 2: AAPL catch up trade against Nasdaq has 29% Return potential
2.3 Microsoft: The AI Backbone of NASDAQ
Microsoft’s AI leadership and technical strength underpin NASDAQ’s rally.
Support and Resistance:
Higher low at 472 (nearest invalidation level); a break below this level signals a 2-3 week correction.
Untested support zone at 483$ offers a long setup if reached.
Price Action:
Ten consecutive bullish weekly candles and five two-week candles suggest a near-term bearish candle, but a quarterly bullish engulfing supports 21% upside next quarter (Average return provided post Bullish engulfing on quarterly chart).
Fundamentals:
Intelligent cloud revenue grows via OpenAI’s ChatGPT subscriptions, with Microsoft capturing indirect revenue.
AI leadership reinforces Microsoft’s role as a long-term NASDAQ driver.
2.4 NASDAQ: The Alpha Driver
Technical Setup:
Nine consecutive bullish S&P 500 daily candles (NASDAQ proxy) signal an imminent bearish candle, likely post-tariff deadline of July 8th, 2025. No overhead resistance supports a target of 23,855 (1.272 Fibonacci).
A flat open inefficiency is a pullback target, offering long opportunities.
Seasonal Trends: July’s bullish bias and a strong two-week candle close above all-time highs confirm breakout momentum. Pullbacks are retests, not reversals.
Algorithmic Behavior: Monthly resets select a lead equity (Nvidia for July 2025). Daily price action of key constituents (eg. NVDA and MSFT) is critical for trading NASDAQ on a daily basis.
Figure 4: Quarterly bullish orderblock on Nasdaq confirmed further upside in Q3, 2025.
🧬 3. Other Equities: Lagging Opportunities
3.1 Amazon
Setup: Lagging NASDAQ, Amazon targets all-time highs (9.88% upside). Earnings on July 31, 2025, will drive momentum.
Strategy: Six-month call options offer 70-100% returns, requiring patience.
Figure 5: Amazons catch up trade vs Nasdaq, potential 10% return to capture
3.2 Google
Setup: A 15% upside to 206, supported by a large inefficiency, positions Google for catch-up.
Strategy: Six-month out expiration call options could yield 70-100% returns for patient investors. (Do your own due diligence on the matter)
Figure 6: Potential 15% Return to capture on Google
🔗 4. Cryptocurrency Integration: Coinbase and Stablecoins
4.1 Coinbase: Financial Integration Leader
Context: The Genius Act legalizes stablecoins (USDC, USDT), boosting Coinbase’s rally as traditional US - businesses adopt its Commerce platform to leverage blockchain powered payment services for seamless transactions.
Business Model: Transaction fees from blockchain-based payments replace traditional systems (Visa, Mastercard), making these payment settlements much fast and avoid currency conversion costs.
Thesis: Coinbase’s stock outperforms crypto assets, leveraging stablecoin adoption.
4.2 Bitcoin: Store of Wealth
Target: 120,000 (1.272 Fibonacci), tied to NASDAQ’s 23,855 target.
Role: A beta asset tracking NASDAQ, Bitcoin serves as a store of wealth, not a utility. Offers 8% upside, 160% with 20x leverage.
Strategy: Day trade only, due to lower returns and high volatility (25-30% drawdowns in a 10% NASDAQ pullback).
Setup- 109,409$ S/R has been beaten into submission, price is looking to breakout. Immediate target is 118k, next leg should resume when next week begins.
Figure 7. Breakout in progress for BTCUSD to 118,000$
4.3 Altcoins: Utility Challenges
Concern: Altcoins (e.g., Solana) lack utility under the Genius Act, risking 80-90% declines in bear markets.
Strategy: Exit during bull markets, reallocating to Bitcoin, US-equities or Coinbase/MSTR.
⚙️ 5.Where to Deploy Risk Capital Now
5.1 Asset Selection
Apple: Top pick, with 300-400% returns via six-month call options targeting 284. Breakout potential and NASDAQ correlation drive allocation.
Amazon/Google: Six-month call options for 9.88-15% upside, yielding 70-100% returns.
Coinbase: Core crypto holding for stablecoin growth.
Bitcoin: Day trading with profit accounts, not long-term allocation.
5.2 Risk Management
Stops: Place below support zones (e.g., DAX below support, not within).
Portfolio Strategy:
Exit at all-time highs, reallocating to lagging equities.
Hold through consolidations if data-supported (e.g., Apple’s triple inside candle).
Avoid crypto during NASDAQ pullbacks due to amplified volatility.
5.3 Data-Driven Patience
Vision: Hold through volatility (e.g., Apple’s 90% to 0% return swing) with technical (ascending triangle) and fundamental (services growth) conviction.
Patterns: Wait for market structure breaks and SR retests, avoiding FOMO trades.
Back-Testing: Historical data (e.g., Microsoft’s 21% post-engulfing returns, NASDAQ’s 70% bounces) informs high-probability setups.
🧠 6. Fundamental Insights
6.1 Apple: Services and AI Growth
Revenue: Stable $200 billion iPhone sales, with services nearing 50% of iPhone revenue. 650 million regular users worldwide using apple services ensures loyalty.
AI Strategy: Partnerships (Perplexity, Anthropic) and in-house silicon chips drive services growth, potentially surpassing iPhone sales in 1-3 years.
Market Response: AI announcements trigger stock price gains, reflecting innovation confidence.
6.2 Microsoft: AI Leader
Cloud Growth: OpenAI’s ChatGPT subscriptions boost intelligent cloud revenue via Microsoft’s 2016 investment.
Leadership: AI dominance supports Microsoft’s 21% expected quarterly return and NASDAQ influence.
6.3 Coinbase: Stablecoin Revenue
Model: Fees from USDC/USDT transactions ensure scalability.
Tailwind: Genius Act enhances Coinbase’s growth, making it a high-conviction pick.
🌐 7. Broader Market Dynamics
7.1 NASDAQ: Risk-On Anchor
Alpha Role: NASDAQ’s algorithm drives equities, indices, and cryptocurrencies. Its dynamics predict S&P 500, Dow Jones, Bitcoin, and altcoin performance.
Leadership Rotation: Nvidia leads in July 2025, with Apple poised post-earnings. Microsoft’s influence persists via AI.
Capital Flow: Sequential equity runs (e.g., Microsoft to Apple) sustain NASDAQ’s rally. Lagging equities offer catch-up trades.
7.2 Pullback Expectations
Overextension: Nine bullish candles signal a bearish candle, likely post-tariff deadline. Flat open inefficiencies are long setups.
Historical Context: Past nine-candle streaks led to moderate pullbacks absent resistance. Current lack of resistance suggests a mild correction.
7.3 Headline Volatility
Impact: Geopolitical/economic headlines may trigger dips, offering long opportunities at SR levels.
Strategy: Focus on higher time frame trends (e.g., two-week candle closes) to avoid shakeouts.
🎯 8. Actionable Recommendations
Apple:
Buy six-month call options targeting $284 (33% potential return in, could render 300-400% return via option calls).
Rationale: Breakout post-fourth SR test, July 23 earnings catalyst, NASDAQ correlation, AI services growth.
Amazon/Google:
Six-month call options for 9.88% (Amazon) and 15% (Google) upside, yielding 70-100% returns.
Rationale: Earnings-driven catch-up with NASDAQ.
Coinbase:
Core holding for stablecoin adoption via Genius Act.
Rationale: Fee-based revenue and financial integration with traditional businesses in USA.
Bitcoin:
Day trade to 120,000 (8% upside) with prop firm accounts, avoiding additional positioning in personal account due to equity exposure in Nasdaq index.
Rationale: Limited returns until Nasdaq runs higher, volatile range bound movement prominent.
NASDAQ Pullbacks:
Enter longs at flat open inefficiencies or support zones (e.g., 6129 retest) post-pullback.
Rationale: Healthy retests in bullish structure.
Risk Management:
Stops below support zones.
Exit at all-time highs, reallocating to lagging equities.
Deploy capital at 20-25% declines for 70% retracements.
🏁 9. Conclusion
The July 2025 earnings season offers robust opportunities in US equities, with Apple leading at 300-400% potential returns, followed by Amazon, Google, and Coinbase. NVIDIA and Microsoft drive NASDAQ’s rally, while Bitcoin’s beta role limits its allocation. By leveraging technical setups, fundamental insights, and disciplined risk management, investors can capitalize on this bullish market. NASDAQ’s alpha status dictates cross-asset performance, making its dynamics central to strategic success.
Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and not financial advice. Conduct due diligence and consult a financial advisor before investing. Past performance does not guarantee future results.