Over the past 5 years, this setup that I am about to explain has never failed. Going back before that, it did have 1 or 2 failed attempts, not wrong directionally, just ended up in the chop.
The 2 charts you are seeing are Citigroup Economic Surprise Indexes for the USA and Eurozone. The other chart is USD COT positions.
1 caveat: USD positions may have been influenced by other currencies other than EUR net long/short. That explains why price action resulted in chop.
Before we go deeper here:
Macro is the amalgamation of what the crowd thinks (**positioning**) and what the fundamentals are saying (**economic data**).
Speculation is knowing when they are both wrong and collecting a premium at a very narrow exit door.
SPECULATION = BOTH WRONG × CONVICTION / EXIT DOOR
